Assessment of the vulnerability of local communities to climate change

This research was carried out within the framework of the UNDP regional project “Climate Change and Sustainability in Central Asia”. It aims to support stability and develop climate-resilient development models in the Fergana Valley, within the cross-border zones of three countries: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

One of the main goals of the project is to increase knowledge about the risks associated with climate change among stakeholders at the local, national and regional levels.

The research was carried out in collaboration between the MCG analytical team and a local consulting company in Uzbekistan.

Work progress

The main objective of the research was to involve local communities in the Fergana Valley of the Republic of Uzbekistan in discussing measures for climate resilience in the region.

It was important for the client to receive first-hand information about the main climate threats, the extent of changes in the region and assess their impact on the lives of the population.

Research Methods

• A series of focus group discussions in 6 MCGs (makhalla citizens’ gatherings) in the Fergana Valley with the participation of specialists knowledgeable in climate change issues and environmental protection issues.
• Quantitative survey (face-to-face) of local residents in 12 MCGs (makhalla citizens’ gatherings) in the Fergana Valley.

Research results

• The main parameters of climatic conditions in the target areas of the Fergana Valley were determined: “hot spots”, main climatic threats, climate vulnerability index for each area;
• The consequences of the implementation of climate risks for the economic and social interests of local communities, their experience of natural disasters, and the basic needs in the field of reducing climate vulnerability are analysed;
• Well-founded recommendations have been formulated for multiple areas of increasing climate resilience in the Fergana Valley (early warning systems, increasing climate literacy, creating reserves and shelters, etc.).